Report confirms land supply concerns

A recent industry land supply assessment identifies less land for urban development in the Gold Coast LGA than noted in council and state land supply assessments. The assessment flags a significant shortfall of approximately 10,000 dwellings from the dwelling supply benchmark (demand) of 31,000 dwellings to 2041.

The report concludes that there is sufficient developable land in the greenfield or expansion area under the SEQRP to accommodate 11,038 dwellings, which have a medium to high probability of being constructed to the year 2041. High rise towers in the study area for example, were considered to have a low probability of occurring. This figure represents between one third and one quarter of the dwelling supply cited in previous reports. The 11,038 dwellings represents 4 to 6 years of supply at 2018 take up rates. Two years of supply only is estimated for lower density (under 20 dwellings per ha.).

The report identified:

  • Only 22,463 dwellings reasonably available in the expansion area to 2041 not the 45-47,000 note in the 2019 Land Supply and Development Monitoring report
  • Inadequate dwelling supply to meet the Land Supply and Development Monitoring report benchmark of 31,000 dwellings
  • The estimated 11,038 available dwellings to 2041 is made up of 4,143 dwellings under 20 dwellings per hectare and 6,906 dwellings over 25 dwellings per hectare

The effect of the recent Draft South East Queensland Koala Conservation Strategy has not been factored into the report.

The suggested options from members to address the land shortfall are:

  • Seek to increase the greenfield land supply into appropriate areas beyond current urban footprint boundaries
  • Conduct a review of mapped environmental constraints to determine how realistic they are and to what extent they unnecessarily impede development activity on residentially zoned land
  • Find opportunities to accommodate the identified dwelling shortfall in the established or the ‘consolidation’ part of the City
  • Increase residential densities in the greenfield areas, where possible to align with realistic market demands for residential development.

The report, Gold Coast Dwelling Supply Study: Assessing the Gold Coast’s Expansion Area Dwelling Supply, was prepared by Zone Planning Group in collaboration with BIOME Consulting, Matusik Property Insights and Zone Landscape Architecture.

The expansion area is land outside the existing urban area boundary (as defined by ShapingSEQ based on selected Australian Bureau of Statistics 2016 Statistical Area Level 2 boundaries).

If you have any questions, please contact Policy Manager, Martin Zaltron via or (07) 3229 1589.